COMMENT | Just after the 2013 general elections, in ‘Fear and Loathing in Putrajaya’, I wrote of how Umno was slowly imploding after the “bad win”. It was a time when the current Pakatan Harapan PM-designate had not chosen to change the narrative and was going on about how the Chinese community had rejected the hand of Malay friendship, that the DAP strategy was making the Chinese community hate the Malay community, and Umno potentates were complaining about how they were backstabbed. This was the time when Umno was briefly floating around the idea of “reconciliation” with PAS, and the MCA was considering rejecting cabinet posts in the new Umno regime.

For Umno, the enemy has always been within. The race baiting and the religious provocation, while systemic, has always been subservient to the realpolitik that Umno survives because its political operatives have managed to control the gravy train through a system of patronage and whatever cultural traits that a strongman like former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad have attributed to the community.

The recent Singapore’s Straits Times article claiming that an early BN candidate list was scrapped because of fears of internal sabotage in Umno is further evidence of the slow implosion of Umno which began in the last election, could change the political landscape of this country. From the article – “Najib had apparently decided to ditch the plan, after BN sensed unrest among its core group of Malay supporters.”

As I claimed in an earlier piece, from what I can gather from Umno political insiders, propagandists and those familiar with Umno politics, the grand Umno poobah does not really fear a Malay tsunami but revolt from his base. Revolt takes on many forms which, of course, includes the moves by Mahathir sleepers within Umno to destabilise the current Umno president. This was the fear of many Umno insiders who spoke to me and which I have written in many articles about the slowly disintegrating hegemon.

Umno warlords and Malay establishment structures realise that Umno is weak because the man who leads Umno is mired in financial scandals, which although complicated, plays well with urban voters who live in the cash cows that Umno wishes to milk. While Umno warlords seek to maintain their status, Malay establishment figures are considering their option of throwing in with a newly-minted Malay power structure to ensure the idea of ‘ketuananism’ sustains in these fast-changing times. Umno handles dissent rather differently than the opposition. While DAP political operatives who find themselves out in the cold have no support from either opposition supporters or cabals within the DAP, when an Umno political operative finds himself/herself in a similar situation, there are consequences for the hegemon.

The ousted political operative can rely on sources that depending on how they have managed to finesse the warlords and take care of their home turfs, ensure that Umno receives a black eye when it comes to its internal elections and general elections. Special elections are a favourite time to settles grudges, by the way. As for the rest of the "Malay" based opposition parties, dissent and betrayal are the norm. They expect these things to happen.

“Internal sabotage” is what Umno fears the most, which is why Umno leaders have always embraced former comrades with open arms and always managed to spin political infighting as a “family thing” as opposed to the reality that the Umno grand poobah’s role has always been to keep the gravy train on track with minimal disruption to distribution.

Different this time

The moves by the 16 Umno members to “dissolve” Umno and the public drama of Umno political operatives weighing in, is merely a twisted joke by the old maverick to remind Umno that payback is a bitch. This, of course, was the great fear of Umno operatives who, in past articles, related (to me) their concerns of sleepers who would disrupt the plans of the Umno mothership before the general elections.

The old maverick was subjected to this and he created a new, more virulent kind of Umno. The Najib regime, of course, has no stomach for these kinds of rejoinders. They understand that they are in no position to recreate Umno (like Mahathir did) because the leadership is weak and the wolves are baying at the door. I do not think anything will come of this legal action by the Umno 16, and it would merely be another stain on Umno legitimacy if Umno wins this general election.

This time though Umno's racial politics is a little different. I mentioned this in passing in earlier articles that there is a growing clamour in Umno that it should dispense with all this kowtowing to the fig leaf of multiracial participation and take this election with the Malay vote. After all, nobody in Umno takes PAS seriously - which to my mind is a mistake – and their participation in this election, either by design or chance, as spoilers would benefit Umno.

Coupled with the deep Islamic state, these voices claim that Umno has led this country all these years and they believe that Umno can act as its own voice of moderation on racial and religious issues. In other words, they do not really see the MCA or MIC as anything more that ornaments which with each passing day, it is obvious that they have lost the non-Malay vote.

To recap – “Either way, with all the gerrymandering, abuse of electoral institutions and cash politics, what passes for democracy in this country will continue with the Umno hegemon secure in the knowledge that they have bested one of its best and brightest – okay, the only best and brightest (Mahathir) – and secure in the knowledge that their hegemony will never again, or at least most probably will never, be threatened by the split in the Malay community with the collusion of non-Malay voting blocks.”

The existential question posed by these voices is that, does Umno need non-Malay votes to survive? Once and for all, this election – to their mind – will determine if the Malays stand with them or not. They point to the old maverick going on international news programmes claiming that Najib is a “monster”. They point to how the DAP wants to destroy the MCA and Gerakan. They point to the way how opposition leadership, clergy and messages on social media make statements challenging the superiority of Islam and ‘ketuanan Melayu’.

They see a split in the Malay community in the Peninsula which they have not witnessed before. They fear for their vote banks in Sabah and Sarawak. But most of all, they fear that the old maverick will hand the keys of their destruction to political prisoner Anwar Ibrahim.

These people ask, why should it be incumbent on Umno to save these political parties when what is needed is final showdown which determines – they believe – that only Umno is needed to run this country. After all, they argue this is already so in substance, if not in form. There is nothing the establishment can say - even if true - about the state of this country that would appease the demographic that wants them out.

As one Umno political insider lamented, if Umno loses this election, it would not be because of anything the opposition did but because of what Najib did not do.